Jump to content
Fluxoid
ryanator

Oil bust inevitable

Recommended Posts

ryanator    185

I've been reading more and more about a potential oil bust, especially right here in the Bakken. It's simple economics, the Bakken is very expensive to drill, costing $70-90 per barrel, doesn't leave much room when a barrel of oil is going for right below $82 right now. Some forecasters are saying that's just the beginning. If a barrel goes below $80 for several months, the drilling will subside significantly which in turn means the business associated with oil (which is heavily depended upon up in North Dakota) will slow and even go away. This could be reality in just a few years (some say significant impacts next year), not initial optimistic hopes of 30, 20, or 10, maybe not even 5.

There may be a lot of huge cheap houses around here soon...

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
nodle    622

I'm thinking the same, it all rides on the price for the barrel of oil. This whole Ebola thing isn't going to help either. More and more people will not wanting to be traveling especially to larger areas, therefore not need to fuel their vehicles. There could be a big change coming around here.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
C Pav    136

I have said it from the start. They predicted 20, 30 even 40 years. Those people are just insanely over confident and optimistic. You can only place so many oil wells before you don't need anymore and can only pump so much before we don't need to keep adding more and more. You can also only build so much before things even out and then bust.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
ryanator    185

I wish people would wake up and start looking at renewable energy. Everything about oil is dirty, including the greed and bloodshed that goes with it.

As long as it profitable, there is actually a ton of deposits to keep drilling for here, but the keyword is profitable, which is harder to do up here due to weather and fracking. The city is trying to develop a better economy for people to stay after the initial service work to setup wells is gone, but just never know what could happen.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
ryanator    185

Not to change the subject, but I know one thing that won't go down in value...guns. When things go good, people want guns for fun, but the price never goes down. When things go bad, people want guns more out of fear. Also, if a collapse occurs and money is worthless, guns have a bigger value in terms of usefulness of hunting, defending, and trading. Guns have a mechanical operation that will almost always last.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
nodle    622

Hard commodities like gold, silver, even copper always hold their value during tough times. But yes guns also. In fact most only increase in value. They in themselves are actually great investments.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
WayneKerr    118

The oil will keep in the ground until its profitable again. I hope it doesn't leave your cities in a hurt bag when they pull out. I've got plenty of opinions on taxing non local business, the value of natural resources and the appropriate ways to use energy.

But I'd be preaching to the choir here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
nodle    622

Oh it will destroy this town. You will have the guys that need to leave in a hurry and then the banks will be hurting from reposing the homes. People will bail and no finish out their leases. All these apartment building will stand empty. But you know what? It serves them right for being so greedy around here. I won't feel bad at all.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
ryanator    185

The oil business is very volatile. ND is in a hit and run situation, use and abuse, leave the leftovers for the locals. Our winters and wind will not keep many here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
nodle    622
The oil business is very volatile. ND is in a hit and run situation, use and abuse, leave the leftovers for the locals. Our winters and wind will not keep many here.

Funny you say that we have been giving our new co-worker a hard time lately because he can't believe how cold it is now. Were like this is nothing. He is from Texas and the most snow he has ever seen in his life is a skiff on the ground he said. He also drives a rear wheel drive car and drive. He also drives 20 miles into work. Can you imagine when we get a blizzard and -20 degree weather around here?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
ryanator    185

I want to point out some major factors in a possible oil bust, especially here in ND. History always repeats itself, and we are no different here. History has even showed that places that looked like booms for decades only lasted 5 or so years.

I want to link back to an article appearing on CNN in December of 2011 and quotes Clay Jenkinson, a well spoken, much sought after and nationally know humanities scholar born in Dickinson, ND and currently resides in Bismarck.

ND Oil Bust?

To summarize, he cites the big 3 things that could easily create an oil bust;

1) Lower oil prices (already happening, and looking to stay there for a longer term)

2) Other more sought after oil shale locations (look at map at bottom)

3) Political energy policies. (only takes a swipe of a pen from Congress)

Guess what, the first two are rearing towards us like a locomotive steaming down the tracks, with the third one up in the air, like a flip of the coin.

As you may already have read, oil prices are falling and the big player, Saudi Arabia, is in large control and seemingly to strategically doing so on purpose with no know turn around in sight.

The other one being large shale deposits in other areas. ND is probably the least desirable due to it's fridged weather and makes things more costly. Think about it, we have a limited amount of drilling companies, if they can find better places to invest, they will do so.

fracking_map.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
nodle    622
That's the thing about oil, only one event away from sky high prices.

True it shouldn't be like this though. Even what the Saudis are doing to make it drop (even though I am not complaining about it) it shouldn't happen. Way to much control. But that is the way the oil companies like it, hook, line, and sinker. I just keep hoping Russia keeps pissing them off so they keep dropping it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
ryanator    185

I wish I was Bill Gates. Imagine the headline...Bill Gates writes check to buy Baker Hughes for $35 Billion... or Bill Gates buys Halliburton who just bought Baker Hughes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Similar Content

    • By ndboarder
      Do you understand the stock market? Had some discussion about this with a few guys yesterday and figured I'd do a bit of a straw poll. Does anyone here feel they understand the stock market to any degree?

      In recent years, the thing companies seem to do is just let their price climb. Historically the stocks never really got above $100 or if they did a stock split would occur. Do people really understand that a stock having value of $50 may not mean the company is any better off than another trading for $40?

      I by no means would say I understand the stock market. I can spot big things that may cause one to move up or down a bit, but in general the movement of the market or individual stocks and what makes it tick seems to just be smoke and mirrors a lot of times.

      And yes, yesterdays debate was the result of the fact that for a little bit MSFT surpassed Google in value, and the fact that we didn't figure most of the general public understood how a stock price of ~$32 would possibly be better than something near $800 a share....
    • By nodle
      Apparently a Audi TT without an oil change at 84,000 miles without an oil change.

      Here is a Honda Civic at 200,000 with regular oil changes.

×