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Oil bust inevitable


ryanator
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I've been reading more and more about a potential oil bust, especially right here in the Bakken. It's simple economics, the Bakken is very expensive to drill, costing $70-90 per barrel, doesn't leave much room when a barrel of oil is going for right below $82 right now. Some forecasters are saying that's just the beginning. If a barrel goes below $80 for several months, the drilling will subside significantly which in turn means the business associated with oil (which is heavily depended upon up in North Dakota) will slow and even go away. This could be reality in just a few years (some say significant impacts next year), not initial optimistic hopes of 30, 20, or 10, maybe not even 5.

 

There may be a lot of huge cheap houses around here soon...

 

 

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I'm thinking the same, it all rides on the price for the barrel of oil. This whole Ebola thing isn't going to help either. More and more people will not wanting to be traveling especially to larger areas, therefore not need to fuel their vehicles. There could be a big change coming around here.
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I have said it from the start. They predicted 20, 30 even 40 years. Those people are just insanely over confident and optimistic. You can only place so many oil wells before you don't need anymore and can only pump so much before we don't need to keep adding more and more. You can also only build so much before things even out and then bust.
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I wish people would wake up and start looking at renewable energy. Everything about oil is dirty, including the greed and bloodshed that goes with it.

 

As long as it profitable, there is actually a ton of deposits to keep drilling for here, but the keyword is profitable, which is harder to do up here due to weather and fracking. The city is trying to develop a better economy for people to stay after the initial service work to setup wells is gone, but just never know what could happen.

 

 

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Not to change the subject, but I know one thing that won't go down in value...guns. When things go good, people want guns for fun, but the price never goes down. When things go bad, people want guns more out of fear. Also, if a collapse occurs and money is worthless, guns have a bigger value in terms of usefulness of hunting, defending, and trading. Guns have a mechanical operation that will almost always last.
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The oil will keep in the ground until its profitable again. I hope it doesn't leave your cities in a hurt bag when they pull out. I've got plenty of opinions on taxing non local business, the value of natural resources and the appropriate ways to use energy.

 

But I'd be preaching to the choir here.

 

 

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Oh it will destroy this town. You will have the guys that need to leave in a hurry and then the banks will be hurting from reposing the homes. People will bail and no finish out their leases. All these apartment building will stand empty. But you know what? It serves them right for being so greedy around here. I won't feel bad at all.
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The oil business is very volatile. ND is in a hit and run situation, use and abuse, leave the leftovers for the locals. Our winters and wind will not keep many here.

Funny you say that we have been giving our new co-worker a hard time lately because he can't believe how cold it is now. Were like this is nothing. He is from Texas and the most snow he has ever seen in his life is a skiff on the ground he said. He also drives a rear wheel drive car and drive. He also drives 20 miles into work. Can you imagine when we get a blizzard and -20 degree weather around here?
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  • 3 weeks later...

I want to point out some major factors in a possible oil bust, especially here in ND. History always repeats itself, and we are no different here. History has even showed that places that looked like booms for decades only lasted 5 or so years.

 

I want to link back to an article appearing on CNN in December of 2011 and quotes Clay Jenkinson, a well spoken, much sought after and nationally know humanities scholar born in Dickinson, ND and currently resides in Bismarck.

 

ND Oil Bust?

 

To summarize, he cites the big 3 things that could easily create an oil bust;

 

1) Lower oil prices (already happening, and looking to stay there for a longer term)

 

2) Other more sought after oil shale locations (look at map at bottom)

 

3) Political energy policies. (only takes a swipe of a pen from Congress)

 

Guess what, the first two are rearing towards us like a locomotive steaming down the tracks, with the third one up in the air, like a flip of the coin.

 

As you may already have read, oil prices are falling and the big player, Saudi Arabia, is in large control and seemingly to strategically doing so on purpose with no know turn around in sight.

 

The other one being large shale deposits in other areas. ND is probably the least desirable due to it's fridged weather and makes things more costly. Think about it, we have a limited amount of drilling companies, if they can find better places to invest, they will do so.

 

http://8020vision.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/fracking_map.png

 

 

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That's the thing about oil, only one event away from sky high prices.

True it shouldn't be like this though. Even what the Saudis are doing to make it drop (even though I am not complaining about it) it shouldn't happen. Way to much control. But that is the way the oil companies like it, hook, line, and sinker. I just keep hoping Russia keeps pissing them off so they keep dropping it.
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  • 2 weeks later...

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